The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, or ECMWF, has now released its outlook for the full 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, calling for 23 named storms and 13 hurricanes to form.
Previously, the ECMWF’s earlier outlook for tropical activity that spanned just the months of April to September was being called “aggressive”, with 17 named storms and 9 hurricanes forecast for the Atlantic.
Now, the ECMWF’s full Atlantic hurricane season outlook, from June through November, is right up there with the most aggressive, calling for a very active year with accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) at 200% of the norm, so around the 230-250 level, which would be particularly high.
The ECMWF’s earlier modelled forecast had called for accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) levels 170% above normal, which would have translated into ACE of 165 by the end of September, signalling an active first few months of the 2024 hurricane season.
Some meteorologists are calling this new outlook from the ECMWF still the most aggressive they have ever seen from this model for hurricane season.
Others highlight the fact the ECMWF has little skill in its seasonal forecasts, while also noting that this extremely high forecast is simply indicative of the conditions being seen and expected in the Atlantic basin, which should set this up to be an active tropical storm season.
The model calls for enhanced levels of tropical cyclone activity across much of the Atlantic basin, but especially around Florida, in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean, as you can see below.
Some meteorologists are also discussing the ECMWF model 500mb anomaly output for the summer months as suggesting that steering winds may favour more storms approaching the United States this year.
That aligns with some other forecasts, that are calling for steering patterns to be more favourable for storms to track further west, while also expecting lower wind sheer due to the departure of El Nino and expected return of La Nina later in the season.
Accurate or not, it’s another forecast for significant levels of Atlantic hurricane activity.
The season is expected to be very busy, but for our readers it’s landfalls that matter, in regions where there are high levels of insurance and reinsurance capital deployed.
Track the 2024 Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane season on our dedicated page and we’ll update you as new information emerges.
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