Global insured cat losses reach $42bn in H1 2026, lowest first-half since 2020: Swiss Re

The Swiss Re Institute has estimated that global insured losses from natural catastrophe events reached US $42 billion in the first half of 2026, marking the lowest first-half total recorded since 2020, and 16% below the 10-year average.

Swiss Re’s data on global insured natural catastrophe losses of $42 billion for H1 2026 compares to broker Aon’s estimate of at least $47 billion, and reinsurance broker Gallagher Re’s estimate of at least $46 billion.

In addition, Swiss Re estimated that global economic losses from nat cat events reached $100 billion in the first half of 2026, considerably down from H1 2025’s $152 billion and 10% below the 10-year average.

According to Swiss Re, severe convective storms (SCS) remained the biggest insured-loss driver during the period, generating a staggering $28 billion of insured losses.

However, while SCS activity across the United States remained above average, Swiss Re noted that relatively few of the highest outbreak events affected Texas, the Southern Plains and the Southeast, where the combination of frequent storms and high concentrations of insured assets typically tend to generate the largest insured losses.

The reinsurer stressed that this illustrates how insured losses depend not only on the severity of events, but also on where they strike.

“Insurance covered around 42% of first-half economic losses, above the 30-year average of 33%, reflecting the concentration of damage in highly insured markets and across widely covered perils. By contrast, the earthquake sequence in Venezuela caused an estimated USD 20 billion in economic losses. Although no reliable insured-loss estimate is yet available, low insurance penetration suggests that only a small share of the damage is expected to be insured,” Swiss Re explained.

The reinsurer also emphasised that June’s record heat temperatures and persistent dry conditions served as a catalyst for an active wildfire season in Europe and other parts of the world.

“As the world’s fastest-warming continent, Europe now experiences 64% more hot days, defined as days when the daily maximum temperature reaches 30°C or more, than in the 1950s. June’s record heat in western Europe, together with persistent dry conditions, also created an environment more conducive to wildfires across western and southern Europe, where major fires affected France and Spain in July,” Swiss Re Institute said.

The Swiss Re Institute also explained that wildfire risk has so far accounted for only a relatively small share of insured losses in Europe but cautioned that it is the fastest-growing weather peril on a global basis.

Research from the firm shows that insured wildfire losses in Europe have increased by an estimated 8–11% per year in real terms since 1970.

While global nat cat activity has been relatively quieter in the opening half of the year, Swiss Re Institute stresses that this does not effectively mean that 2026 will end up being a quieter year overall.

Historically, the second half of the year accounts for an average of 58% of global insured natural catastrophe losses, mainly driven by North Atlantic hurricanes.

However, as Swiss Re importantly highlights, while El Niño conditions tend to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity, it does not completely eliminate landfall risk, with 22% of US hurricane landfalls since 1950 having occurred during El Niño conditions.

In addition, the firm also outlined that El Niño may influence tropical cyclone activity in the Central and East Pacific and could alter the risk of floods, wildfires, and other weather extremes elsewhere too.

“Beyond seasonal outlooks, the long-term drivers of catastrophe losses remain unchanged, including growing exposure in hazard-prone areas and rising reconstruction costs. Strengthening resilience and reducing underlying risk will therefore be increasingly important in maintaining the affordability and availability of insurance,” Swiss Re added.

Balz Grollimund, Head Catastrophe Perils at Swiss Re, commented: “A less costly first half of the year does not mean the risk has gone away. One major hurricane, earthquake or wildfire can quickly change the picture. Europe’s recent wildfires highlight how hotter and drier conditions are making large wildfires more likely and, with more homes, businesses and infrastructure built in risk-exposed areas, also more costly.”